Trešnjevka – sjever — district overview

Situation

Trešnjevka – sjever is Zagreb’s second-hottest district (behind Donji Grad): dense fabric, thin greenery, and a genuine warming trend rather than a flat plateau. About 52,974 residents live here across ten neighbourhoods (mjesni odbori), including an estimated 10,878 aged 65+ (~20.5%). Study window for the heat layers: summer satellite and weather data for 2025, with census context from 2021.

Key findings

Heat and vulnerability coincide. District heat intensity is +8.98 °C above the rural baseline. Elderly residents are exposed by day and by night; drinking fountains are almost absent and there is no dedicated cycling infrastructure.
Neighbourhoods diverge under the same district heat. Antun Mihanović leads on elderly heat exposure day and night; Rudeš is largest, hottest by physical measures, and has the biggest canopy shortfall; Dr. Ante Starčević ranks 7th of 218 on the heat vulnerability index yet misses the city’s “priority 32” shortlist on a density cut-off alone.
One live intervention already exists. A shading pilot at the Trešnjevka/NAMA tram stop sits on a stop that field observation found almost without natural shade before evening — while nearby park-side stops were far more comfortable.

Acronyms: HVI = heat vulnerability index (0–1, higher = more vulnerable) · HRPI = independent vulnerability score that also flags why a place is vulnerable · NDVI = satellite greenness (0–1, higher = greener) · LST = land-surface temperature.

Neighbourhood comparison

MO	Population	0–14 share	65+ share	Heat-risk zone	HVI rank (of 218)	In city’s priority 32?
Rudeš	9,559	15.8%	17.5%	red	15	yes
Antun Mihanović	2,875	11.4%	28.4%	orange	26	no
Dr. Ante Starčević	5,893	12.3%	22.6%	unmapped	7	no
Silvije Strahimir Kranjčević	5,787	13.2%	22.3%	orange	24	yes
Nikola Tesla	3,973	12.7%	22.8%	orange	25	yes
Pongračevo	6,914	15.2%	22.7%	orange	28	yes
Stara Trešnjevka	6,499	12.7%	18.5%	orange	29	yes
Samoborček	3,985	13.4%	19.6%	unmapped	38	yes
Ljubljanica	2,916	13.3%	20.1%	orange	41	yes
Ciglenica	4,573	14.2%	15.9%	unmapped	68	no

District total: 52,974 residents — about 7,275 (~13.7%) aged 0–14 and 10,878 (~20.5%) aged 65+. Rudeš and Pongračevo have the highest child shares; Antun Mihanović has the highest elderly share (28.4%). Seven of ten sit on the city’s official “hot + dense” shortlist (32 neighbourhoods citywide). The three that do not — Antun Mihanović, Dr. Ante Starčević, Ciglenica — still sit in the same hot district; Dr. Ante Starčević ranks higher on HVI than five neighbourhoods that are shortlisted.

Equal-weighted ranking without the shortlist gate

This is a different ranking from the HVI column above — not a re-sort of it. The “priority 32” column is a citywide density threshold, not a judgement on any one neighbourhood. The table below combines five measures available for all ten neighbourhoods — HVI, HRPI, daytime elderly-heat exposure, night-time elderly-heat exposure, and canopy shortfall — with equal weights:

Rank	Neighbourhood	On official shortlist?	What stands out
1	Pongračevo	yes	Tops HRPI; top-3 on both elderly-exposure measures; second-largest canopy shortfall
2	Silvije Strahimir Kranjčević	yes	Consistently mid-top on every measure
3	Antun Mihanović	no	#1 on both elderly-exposure measures, day and night
4	Nikola Tesla	yes	Second on both elderly-exposure measures
5	Rudeš	yes	Worst canopy shortfall; lowest elderly exposure of the ten
6	Dr. Ante Starčević	no	#1 on HVI; stronger greenery keeps canopy need lower
7	Stara Trešnjevka	yes	Middling on these five measures
8	Ljubljanica	yes	Smallest population; low on most measures
9	Samoborček	yes	Lowest HRPI of the ten
10	Ciglenica	no	Lowest on four of five measures — canopy shortfall is its main flag

Limitation — shortlist cutoff: Antun Mihanović jumps to 3rd of 10 when density is not a gate. Facility counts, park/refuge walking distances, and drinking-fountain data remain missing for Antun Mihanović, Dr. Ante Starčević, and Ciglenica because that analysis was only run for the 32-neighbourhood shortlist. Equal weights are one reasonable combination; other weights would reorder the closely packed 2nd–6th positions.

Heat and exposure

District heat intensity (ΔT): +8.98 °C above rural baseline — second-hottest district after Donji Grad (+9.64 °C)
Surface temperature: 41.5 °C average
Heatwave days (summer 2025): 7 days, same across all ten neighbourhoods
10-year trend (2015–2025): Warming, at +0.16 °C/year — a genuine warming signal, not merely “stuck”
Night-time heat: Every neighbourhood sits in the hottest ~18% of all 218 citywide for night-time temperature

The district heat number (+8.98 °C) is measured once for the whole district, so it is identical across all ten neighbourhoods. Night-time temperature and modelled daytime air temperature do differ neighbourhood to neighbourhood (see each profile).

A separate neighbourhood score combines night-time land-surface temperature with elderly population share. It is independently computed from the daytime elderly-exposure score used elsewhere.

MO	Night temperature (°C)	65+ share	Combined night-heat × elderly score
Antun Mihanović	20.45	28.4%	0.267 — highest in the district
Pongračevo	20.40	22.7%	0.211
Silvije Strahimir Kranjčević	20.39	22.3%	0.207
Nikola Tesla	20.21	22.8%	0.204
Ljubljanica	20.53	20.1%	0.192
Dr. Ante Starčević	19.81	22.6%	0.186
Samoborček	20.32	19.5%	0.179
Stara Trešnjevka	20.54 — warmest night of the ten	18.5%	0.177
Rudeš	19.96	17.5%	0.149
Ciglenica	20.24	15.9%	0.144 — lowest in the district

Antun Mihanović tops this ranking too — the same neighbourhood that leads daytime elderly exposure. Two independent measures agreeing is a stronger signal than either alone.

Limitation — night satellite passes: All ten night-LST readings rest on only two usable satellite passes. Treat small differences between neighbourhoods (for example 20.54 °C vs 19.81 °C) as broadly consistent with reality, not as a precise ranking.

Greenery and public space

Bicycle infrastructure: 5.3 km total, of which 0 km is a properly dedicated bike lane — the only one of Zagreb’s five hottest districts with none
Greenness (NDVI): 0.30 — well below the ~0.48 the district would need to fully offset its heat
Greening trend: Flat — not getting greener, but not among the three districts actively losing vegetation
Independent comparison: An academic study comparing this district to leafy Maksimir found 5–9% green-space coverage vs Maksimir’s 26–53%
Tree count: 8,453 individually catalogued trees, about a third young (under 5 m) — similar to the citywide young-tree share
Why planting alone won’t cool this district fast: Compacted, high-imperviousness soil slows tree growth and cooling. At the current planting rate, closing the greenery gap would take centuries — the case for shade structures now, with planting as the long-term complement
Concrete greening opportunities: A city (GUMS) survey of roundabouts and tram-turning loops lists this district for landscape-only redesign; a resident participatory-mapping exercise flagged an under-used park, two desire paths, and an existing fountain that already works as a shade/gathering spot

Place and demographics

Geography

Position in the city: Western inner ring, northwest of the historic core (Donji Grad), south of Črnomerec
Terrain: Flat, dense mixed residential/light-industrial fabric on the Sava plain — no hill, mountain, or river frontage
Notable features: Trešnjevački trg (central square and market; site of the active shading pilot)

Demographics

Socio-economic rank: #7 of 17 districts — mid-table
Higher education: 46.7% of adults
Unemployment: 4.0%
Est. average net wage: €1,295/month (2023 basis — modelled estimate, not a direct measurement)
Deaths, 2024: 603 (against 481 births → natural increase −122)
Crude mortality rate, 2024: ≈1,138 per 100,000 — slightly above the citywide rate of 1,115.3/100,000
Leading causes of death, EMS demand: Only available city-wide — circulatory disease leads citywide (38.4% of deaths); 72% of 2025 EMS interventions were for residents 65+
Chronically ill residents: Not tracked in this data — a genuine gap, distinct from mortality/EMS figures

These figures are district-wide. City census data on education and income is not published below district level.

Resident survey

The citizen survey grew from 4,510 to 5,902 responses citywide between the first snapshot (2026-09-07) and this update. This district’s sample is 596 respondents (up from 461) — the second-largest district sample after Trešnjevka – jug’s 612. Of those, 543 named one of the ten neighbourhoods below, 50 answered “don’t know which MO,” and 3 left it blank.

MO	n	Self-reported heat burden (rank of 10)	Survey vulnerability (rank of 10)	Policy support	Working AC
Antun Mihanović	24	3.25/4 (#1)	0.28 (#2)	4.75/5 — highest of the ten	96%
Ljubljanica	47	3.21/4 (#2)	0.28 (#1)	4.60/5	96%
Pongračevo	55	3.14/4 (#3)	0.23 (#8)	4.59/5	93%
Dr. Ante Starčević	36	3.12/4 (#4)	0.22 (#9)	4.45/5	83%
Stara Trešnjevka	113	3.09/4 (#5)	0.25 (#5)	4.50/5	88%
Silvije Strahimir Kranjčević	71	3.03/4 (#6)	0.26 (#4)	4.68/5	92%
Ciglenica	48	2.99/4 (#7)	0.26 (#3)	4.61/5	83%
Samoborček	61	2.97/4 (#8)	0.23 (#7)	4.60/5	93%
Rudeš	50	2.93/4 (#9)	0.25 (#6)	4.47/5	86%
Nikola Tesla	38	2.92/4 (#10)	0.21 (#10)	4.45/5	100%

Where the survey agrees with the models: Antun Mihanović tops self-reported heat burden and ranks 2nd on survey vulnerability — the same neighbourhood flagged by day- and night-time elderly exposure.

Where rankings shifted as the sample grew: Rudeš and Nikola Tesla are effectively tied at the bottom of felt burden (2.93 vs 2.92). Rudeš remains the district’s largest, physically hottest neighbourhood yet sits near the bottom of felt burden — a within-district exception to the broader citywide pattern (r=0.61 among reliable-sample districts) where physical and self-reported heat broadly track each other. Ljubljanica and Ciglenica still rank near the bottom on HVI yet high on survey vulnerability. None of these overturn the official ranking alone, but they matter when choosing intervention types.

Interventions

Trešnjevka shading pilot — temporary shading at the Trešnjevka/NAMA tram stop, framed as a neighbourhood-backed community activity. Field observation on 3 August 2026, during a heatwave, found that stop almost without natural shade before ~19:00, with riders improvising shade from a pole or ad panel. Two nearby stops next to parks were far more comfortable, showing shade access can change within a few hundred metres.
Resident “futures” exercise — residents pictured a heatwave in a place they know, then described a dream fix. Common answers: shade, water, a calmer pace of life, and services within walking distance.
Unused parcel data — 481 high-priority parcels exist citywide at plot level. They are not yet tagged by district, so it is not known how many fall inside Trešnjevka – sjever. Worth joining if the district needs more candidate sites beyond the tram-stop corridor and roundabout survey.

Sources and limitations

Coverage: figures above are for the whole district (17 total in Zagreb) unless stated otherwise. Neighbourhood breakdowns are in each profile linked from the comparison table.
Night-time heat exposure uses outputs/zagreb_mo_elderly_night_lst_exposure.geojson from the project repository — not yet in the published neighbourhood master table. Readings rest on two usable satellite passes (see note under Heat and exposure).
Tree count joins the city tree inventory (162,676 trees citywide) to the district boundary used by the public UHI map. A neighbourhood-level version is not possible yet — no neighbourhood-boundary file exists for that join.
10-year trend cites the published file rqe_trend_tresnjevka_sjever_2015_2025.csv.
Mortality / natural increase (2024) from Health data — key findings (Štampar yearbook Tables 3–4); district-wide only; no cause-of-death or EMS breakdown below city level.
“Priority 32” density threshold: the official shortlist requires both high heat and high density. Three neighbourhoods in this district miss it on density alone despite high vulnerability on other measures.
Full per-field sources are documented with the neighbourhood profile dataset notes for this project.